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IDC forecasts chip market growth at 4.6% in 2012

Posted: 25 Jul 2012     Print Version  Bookmark and Share

Keywords:semiconductor sales  chip  revenue 

International Data Corp. (IDC) forecasts semiconductor sales worldwide to grow 4.6 per cent in 2012 to Rs.17.21 lakh crore ($315 billion).

In 2013, IDC said it expects chip sales to grow 6.2 per cent Rs.18.31 lakh crore ($335 billion) in 2013 and increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8 per cent from 2011-2016, reaching Rs.20.77 lakh crore ($380 billion) in 2016.

Despite the on-going global macroeconomic uncertainties, such as the Eurozone crisis, lower global GDP growth, and economic slowing in the BRIC countries, current demand remains strong for semiconductors in applications such as smartphones, media tablets, and automotive electronics, said IDC. Further, there are high expectations for the launch of Microsoft's Windows 8 operating system and next-generation smartphones later this year, which will accelerate semiconductor revenue growth in 2013 and beyond.

"As we forecasted earlier this year, the cyclical semiconductor downturn that started in the middle of last year reached bottom in the second quarter of 2012," said Mali Venkatesan, research manager for Semiconductors at IDC. "Supply constraints on semiconductor products, such as smartphone applications processors and PC discrete graphics processors, based on the most advanced process technologies are easing as foundries are bringing more capacity online. Also, the semiconductor industry has recovered from the flooding in Thailand that held back the supply of hard drives and PCs. Leading-edge 22nm at Intel is ramping fast now, while foundries and memory companies are getting ready to move to 20nm technology node."

While all these point to strong semiconductor growth, Venkatesan notes that near term growth will be slower than that of past semiconductor cycles due to macroeconomic weakness.

Regionally, Europe continues to be weak across the board. In the U.S., consumer and automotive markets are showing strong semiconductor demand.

Although GDP growth has slowed in China, India, and Brazil, demand for smartphones, tablets, and notebooks remains strong, noted IDC.

IDC expects that semiconductor market growth will resume in the fourth quarter of 2012 and into the first quarter of 2013. This next wave of semiconductor demand will be spurred by the launch of Windows 8 for tablets, increased enterprise IT spending, and next-generation smartphones, tablets, and gaming platforms, as well as improved global macroeconomic conditions. The recovery will accelerate into the second half of 2013 and beyond.

For more statistics and forecasts, click here.





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