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Notebook market to pick up by Q2 2011

Posted: 20 May 2011     Print Version  Bookmark and Share

Keywords:notebook  market  shipments 

Trendforce research department, DRAMeXchange forecasts that the worldwide Notebook (NB) market will pick up by May and June after a decline of 13.2 per cent month over month (MoM) to 1.54 crore units in April, which is attributed to the delay shipment from March by the Intel flawed chipset and the quarterly-end high base phenomenon.

ODMs expect that there will be 10 per cent growth of NB shipment quarter on quarter—10 per cent for Compal, 10–15 per cent for Wistron, 10 per cent for Inventec and 20–30 per cent for Pegatron. DRAMeXchange expects the recovering ODM momentum and strong EMS growth is where there will be an increase in the second quarter of 2011 NB growth to around 9.5 per cent.

However, ODMs are still conservative towards 2011 year-end target. Besides the 10 per cent y-o-y from Quanta, Compal revised down their annual target to 4.8 crore units from 5.5 crore while Wistron will aim at 9–11 per cent growth rate to 3 crore units. Inventec expected the flat or mild increase pattern in 2011. That is, DRAMeXchange forecasts that overall 2011 notebook (netbook included) will likely move 6.5 per cent year on year to 20.65 crore units.

As for the shipment patterns in the first half and second half of 2011, DRAMeXchange concludes the real channel sales will be the key contributing factor to the second half shipment since most of the second quarter shipment will be regarded as inventory built-up for the back to school sales. Given the anticipation of cannibalisation from tablet in the third quarter, the market can expect NB shipment ratio comparing the first half and second half of the year to be closed to 45:55 rather than 40:60.

For more statistics and forecasts, click here.

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