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Chip market to plunge 26% this year

Posted: 15 Apr 2009     Print Version  Bookmark and Share

Keywords:semiconductor market  semiconductor sales  chip market 

Independent semiconductor market statistician Mike Cowan has revised his 2009 semiconductor annual market estimate to Rs.9.05 lakh crore ($182.1 billion), which would be equivalent to a market contraction of 26.8 per cent.

Cowan is predicting that March 2009 sales will come in at Rs.84,174.59 crore ($16.93 billion), which would be 32.8 per cent down on sales recorded by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) group for March 2008.

Cowan, who works with actual monthly global semiconductor sales numbers gathered and published by the WSTS organisation, uses linear regression analysis of historical data to produce a forecast of worldwide semiconductor sales looking forward over the next five quarters.

For the five quarters from Q1 2009 to Q1 2010 Cowan predicts that sales will be Rs.2.17 lakh crore ($43.55 billion), Rs.2.19 lakh crore ($44.13 billion), Rs.2.36 lakh crore ($47.46 billion), Rs.2.33 lakh crore ($46.95 billion) and Rs.2.37 lakh crore ($47.57 billion). This equates to year-on-year percentage growth rates of -30.7, -31.8, -31.1, -10.1 and 9.2. It can be seen that Cowan believe the chip market will not return to year-on-year growth until Q1 2010, and only then because relatively low sales will be compared with even weaker sales in Q1 2009.

-Peter Clarke
EE Times Europe

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