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Gartner's top 10 predictions for '09

Posted: 23 Jan 2009     Print Version  Bookmark and Share

Keywords:video telepresence  virtualisation  IT industry  business process outsourcing 

• By 2012, as many as one in three of the top 20 business process outsourcing (BPO) providers will no longer exist.—The market will witness a shakeout of its competitive landscape over the coming months as providers are swept up in the economic crisis, exposed to loss-making contracts on their books and an inability to adapt to standardised business models. As the BPO market moves from adolescence into maturity, the economic crisis comes at a critical time for many providers who will need to improve service levels while taking cost out of the business. Contracts that rely on significant front-end transition investment and time will likely give way to standardised services using cloud-oriented approaches. Providers, large or small, who cannot adapt to offer the delivery of this style of comprehensive services or maintain profitability will increasingly struggle.

According to Gartner, companies must evaluate potential BPO providers in the light of their recent activities, set time aside for strategic discussions and to prepare contingency plans in case of consolidation.

• By 2012, successful enterprises will actively encourage and reward more failures to find the optimal approach they want more quickly.—Unfortunately, for many reasons, most business managers lack the skills to change processes or understand how desired changes might affect others. Thus, the BPM principle that business managers and process participants can and should be able to change processes—either changing the design, the instance, the data or the execution—is very scary to many. This will not change unless business users are given and encouraged to use a business process "sandbox," a safe place in which to build their skills and test their ideas about which process needs more or less agility, where the flex point should be, what the effects are of one change vs. another, how change affects process performance and process partners, and more.

• In 2012, the major PC vendors will recycle only one PC for every five they ship.—With ongoing PC market growth and strong adoption of mobile PCs, the volume of secondary PCs is accelerating. However, PC recycling is still highly dependent on government legislation and subsidies. Without subsidies, PC recycling is usually not profitable. Vendors have made some progress developing recycling schemes, but the volume of product they collectively take back is a fraction of the total they produce. The IT industry as a whole needs to do more, particularly as the PC is only one type of electronic waste. Actions might include auditing and publication of vendor recycling data, universal inclusion of recycling costs in the original cost of sale and, although deeply unpopular with the industry, research into how average lifecycles might be extended.

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