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Global chip market slowed down

Posted: 02 Dec 2008     Print Version  Bookmark and Share

Keywords:chip sales  handset production  chip trends  wafer 

The three-month moving average of global chip sales is expected to come in at Rs.114,082.97 crore ($22.8 billion) for October, down 1 per cent on the Rs.115,083.70 crore ($23 billion) achieved in September, says Bruce Diesen, analyst at Carnegie ASA.

Diesen maintains actual sales will be down 5.9 per cent year-on-year for October, compared to the increase of 1.3 per cent recorded in September.

"Actual sales should probably fall 9 per cent year-on-year in November before stabilising. When Lehman went bankrupt, the world slowed down," said Diesen.

Carnegie still expects a 4 per cent decline in dollar terms for sales in 2009 compared to an earlier estimate of no change, and forecasts a 1 per cent increase for this year.

Diesen says based on chip trends, world handset production has risen by low single digits in October.

He adds that while most of the indicators tracked by Carnegie slowed in October, Chinese high tech exports held up reasonably well.

The weakest sectors seen in October are likely to be memory chips, automotive and LCD TV chips.

World wafer starts rose only 2.7 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter, compared with 11.5 per cent in Q2. This is down on previous forecasts, "so we now estimate 7.5 per cent growth in 2008, compared with the old estimate of 9 per cent," said Diesen.

Carnegie now suggests a 1 per cent drop in wafer starts for next year, compared with its last forecast of a 4 per cent gain.

Diesen also predicts that the Taiwanese foundries lost market share in the third quarter, as they are "typically swing producers. "

And he suggests that for the second straight quarter, 200-mm volumes fell sharply.

-John Walko
EE Times Europe

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