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Analyst trims LCD-TV forecast

Posted: 28 Nov 2008     Print Version  Bookmark and Share

Keywords:LCD-TV shipments  economic downturn  LCD-TV sales  consumer demand 

A revised forecast from iSuppli Corp. shows worldwide LCD-TV shipments will grow less than expected but still rise 18.9 per cent in 2008 and another 20.5 per cent in 2009.

Citing the economic climate and financial crisis, the market research firm said it now forecasts global LCD-TV shipments will amount to 9.34 crore units in 2008, down nearly 6 per cent from its previous prediction of 9.9 crore. The firm also reduced its previous forecast of 12.4 crore units for 2009 to 11.26 crore units for the year.

In a statement, iSuppli television analyst Riddhi Patel said the economic downturn has had a "knock-on effect" on global economies, slowing gross domestic product growth, increasing inflation and a slowing consumer spend around the world.

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"The current crisis is impacting spending in all markets, including LCD TVs," Patel said. "The continued impact of the recession and credit crunch in the United States and Europe and rising inflation in many emerging markets will slow down sales growth for LCD TVs in 2009 as well."

But strong customer demand and declining average selling prices, combined with marketing and promotional efforts by the major brands, will continue to spur a rise in shipments, Patel said.

The fourth quarter of 2008 will be weak for LCD-TV sales compared to previous expectations, iSuppli said. OEM shipments to the sales and distribution channels will continue to be robust, but consumer purchases will be weak, the firm said.

In early 2009 the channels will be holding more than nine weeks of inventory, a level that could vary by region, iSuppli said. To clear out the existing inventories, the channels will be forced to reinstate aggressive holiday prices, according to the firm.

As most regions continue to struggle with the financial environment, the first half of 2009 is expected to be slow as well, iSuppli said. Conditions are expected to improve in the second half of 2009 because the mature regions will begin to show first signs of a recovery during the third quarter, the firm projected.

-Dylan McGrath
EE Times

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