2010 predictions for Southeast Asia telecom market
First, 2010 will be the year of post-crisis transformations as both service providers (SPs) and end-users race to capture opportunities from recovering economies while applying lessons learned from the economic slowdown of 2008 and 2009. Second, it will be the year for heightened mobility and related creative offerings. Lastly, 2010 will be the year for the next wave of buzz-technologies including cloud computing, 4G, and Fibre to the x (FTTx) in the SEA region.
"Fierce competition, driven by post-crisis moment and the need to catch up with rapid technology developments will be motivational factors that will shape the next 12 months of the SEA telecommunications market. In order to be successful in this new market scenario, being reactive to market demand will not be enough. Market players will need to adopt a proactive stance in fulfilling market requirements, as well as creating new growth avenues," says Karen Rondon, research manager for ASEAN communications research at IDC.
The following are IDC's 2010 Top 10 Predictions for the telecommunications market in Southeast Asia.
1. Strong telecom market
The SEA telecommunication services market, encompassing mobile voice, mobile data, fixed telephony, corporate data and Internet access services, will reach Rs.166,698.97 crore ($36.1 billion) in 2010, or 8 per cent higher than its 2009 performance. Mobile data will lead the growth with a projected 13 per cent revenue expansion, fuelled by aggressive competition, wider services selection and strong drive for services such as mobile Internet and a host of content and applications. Growth will be highest for Vietnam and Indonesia at 15 per cent and 13 per cent y-on-y, respectively.
2. Telecom carriers touch the clouds
In 2010 IDC expects incumbent carriers in the SEA region to embark into the cloud computing space as an important part of their long-term strategies of expanding their role in the overall ICT supply chain. Cloud computing is one of the sweeping technologies to have emerged in the ICT industry in recent times. Given that the networks are the foundation on which these cloud services are being delivered, IDC believes that SEA telecom carriers are in a position to compete in this market in the coming years.
3. Carriers take on IT-managed services
IDC believes that telecommunications carriers in SEA will become serious contenders in managed IT services bids in 2010, particularly in the areas of network services, desktop outsourcing, and business process outsourcing services, as well as verticalised managed solutions. Over the years, carriers in the region have gradually transformed themselves from being access providers to being end-to-end service providers. In 2010, IDC expects telecom carriers to see major wins related to provisioning of managed IT services.
4. Raising broadband speed bar
Many major broadband service providers anticipate to launch commercial FTTx services in 2010, following roll-out in selected areas in the last few months. IDC anticipates that although the impact of FTTx availability on subscriber numbers may be low, it will raise the expectations from broadband speed, both fixed and wireless. 2010 will be an important "wait-and-see" year for the market as FTTx deployments will force broadband service providers to revamp their broadband packages and make improvements on speed and service quality.
5. From CAPEX to OPEX
In 2010, many operators in the region, most notably Indonesia and Vietnam, will transform their spending orientation from being capital expenditure (CAPEX)-intensive to one that is largely based on operational expenditure (OPEX). More than the need to drive down costs, IDC sees rapid technology development and the need of carriers to be on top of this development in order to remain competitive will be key drivers to this shift. 2010 will see telecom carriers in several SEA countries accelerating their migration to solutions and managed services.