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Flat panel display growth to slow

Posted: 04 Feb 2009     Print Version  Bookmark and Share

Keywords:flat panel displays  consumer behaviour  panel pricing  display sales 

Business and consumer behaviour in response to the global economic climate have changed the outlook for electronic display sales and shipments over the next seven years. This is according to DisplaySearch's latest Q4 08 "Quarterly

Worldwide FPD Forecast Report."

One year ago, the Q3 07 "Quarterly Worldwide FPD Forecast Report" from DisplaySearch projected sales of flat panel displays (FPDs) would grow to Rs.620,451.24 crore ($124 billion) in 2009. That forecast represented information about producer shipment targets and analyst projections based on historical data through Q3 07. Since then, a normal decline in panel pricing caused by capacity expansion has been deepened by a basic change in consumer behaviour in reaction to economic problems.

Consumer surveys and retail data compiled by NPD, DisplaySearch's parent company, indicate that such behavioural changes may persist. In addition, consumers outside Europe or North America face recessionary conditions. Thus, the Q4 08 "Quarterly Worldwide FPD Forecast Report" predicted sales of Rs.620,451.24 crore ($124 billion) will not be reached until 2014, five years later than the Q4 07 report predicted. The table compares the flat panel sales forecasts of Q4 07 and Q4 08 for the years 2008-2015.

Annual flat panel sales forecasts in the Q4 07 and Q4 08 Reports (US $ billions)
Source: DisplaySearch Q4 08 Quarterly Worldwide FPD Forecast Report

"The difference in forecasted sales over the seven years from 2009 through 2015 totals Rs.675,491.27 crore ($135 billion), representing a 15 per cent decline from the Q4 07 forecast. Reduced price expectations create most of this difference. The prior report expected an average sales price of Rs.1,601.16 ($32) in 2008 would decrease about 3 per cent a year to Rs.1,300.95 ($26) in 2015. The latest report estimates an average price of Rs.1,451.06 ($29) for 2008 and expects it will decrease about 2 per cent a year to Rs.1,250.91 ($25) in 2015. Over the seven years, the average flat panel price prediction is 9 per cent less than the earlier forecast. Unit shipment growth projections have changed less," noted David Barnes, DisplaySearch's VP of strategic analysis.

Both forecasts expected FPD shipments would increase at a compound annual rate of 5 per cent. The difference comes from a smaller base in 2008. The Q4 07 report estimated 4 per cent more units would be shipped in 2008 than the results indicate were shipped. The average diagonal size of direct-view (non-projection) displays is another difference. The Q4 07 forecast predicted an average diagonal of 10.2-inches from 2009 to 2015, assuming an HD aspect ratio. The latest forecast predicts a larger average diagonal of 10.4 inches over the seven years. Combined with lower average unit price expectations, this implies that producers will obtain 11 per cent less revenue per diagonal inch than expected previously. The good news is that consumers will get more display for their dollar, which makes sense in a more competitive market.

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